The local and devolved elections 2026

The 2026 UK local and devolved elections on 7 May resulted in a major shift in the political landscape, marked by a "Reform surge" and significant losses for the Labour Party across England and Wales 

Wales (Senedd): Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party with 43 seats (+20), ending over a century of Labour dominance. Reform UK made a major breakthrough, securing 34 seats to become the second-largest party. Labour plummeted to just 9 seats (-35), and First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat.

Scotland (Holyrood): The SNP won a fifth successive term with 58 seats (-6) but remained short of a majority. Labour fell to 17 seats (-4), while Reform UK matched them with 17 seats (+17). The Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats both made gains.

For the first time in modern history, the combined vote share of Labour and the Conservatives plummeted to historic lows, with one analysis placing their combined total at just 37.7%. This suggests the UK has shifted toward a "five-party" or "multi-party" landscape where at least five parties (Labour, Conservative, Reform UK, Lib Dems, and Greens) are competing on a national level. 

Evidence Against the End of the Two-Party System

• The "First-Past-The-Post" (FPTP) Barrier: While support is fragmented, the national voting system still heavily favors larger parties. Experts warn that even with a low vote share, Labour or the Conservatives could still win a majority in a general election because their support is often more efficiently distributed than that of the smaller parties.

• Ideological Bloc Voting: Some analysts argue that rather than a rejection of two-party politics, we are seeing a replacement within established ideological blocs. In Wales, for instance, voters appear to be choosing Plaid Cymru or Reform as new "best placed" challengers within their respective left and right blocs, effectively maintaining a two-sided competition but with different players.

• Mid-term Protest Voting: Historically, local elections are often used by voters to "punish" the incumbent national government. Leaders like Sir Keir Starmer have framed these results as a typical, if severe, mid-term dip rather than a permanent shift in political alignment.

• Regional Dominance: Despite losses, Labour remains the largest party in many metropolitan areas, and the Conservatives held onto key strongholds like Fareham and Harlow. The "big two" still possess the institutional machinery and historical brand recognition that challenger parties often struggle to convert into long-term national governance. 

If these results in 2026 do indicate the end of the two party system and that will have to be shown in a general election before we can be certain,  then its demise was certainly a long time in coming. Terms such as partisan de-alignment and class de-alignment have been used for decades to describe the ungluing of the bonds of class and identity between the British population and the two largest parties,both of these trends have thier origin in the changing economy, deindustrialization, the dominance of a national media and national cultures which broke down regional bonds. However there's also been a consistent decline in trust in the two main parties and in the established party system. It would be fair to say that in 2024 the Labour Party appealed to the British people as 'not being the Tories' rather than offering a positive sense of their own identity. The frustration with Keir Starmer and the Labour Party since 2024 focused on this lack of a sense of purpose and clear identity. It's no surprise then that the Green Party, offering a mixture of traditional environmental issues and left wing politics was more easily identified as an alternative to Labor. The Conservatives are still suffering from the legacy of the Johnson Truss years before that the austerity years and it will be a while before they can be again seen as credible. It was therefore an opportune time for reform to take on the mantle of conservatism and New Right politics.

These long term trends which created an altogether more volatile electorate only awaited the moment when alternatives could appear and take advantage of declining trust and increasing frustration.The persistent charge that politicians are 'all the same' and 'nothing changes' as well as a hunger for something a bit different , manifested itself in populism of the right and left. Populism's appeal rests substantially On its  lack of hesitation in making bold assertions of change uninhibited by traditional economic considerations or even the realities of politics. It won't be however, until the next election that we can truly see if the old order and Labour Conservative Party dominance is gone, at least for the time being. While the first past the post voting system is used there will be an inclination for blocks of the center right and blocks of the center left to form Which may replace the two party system with a two block system rather than a multi party system we shall find out.

Voting behaviour and the Media 

Voting Behaviour