'It's the economy, stupid!'

If Trump’s supporters were to varying extents persuaded by the narrative of the Republican right that Trump’s victory is a revolt against the insidious encroachment of forces antithetical to the liberties and sensibilities of the common sense folk of middle America. There  was another narrative one which  Kamala and the Democrats could not overcome, ‘it’s the economy stupid’. In the end are all elections about the economy and Reagan’s question ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago’ hung around Kamala neck and meant she was sunk form the start? This was the argument which reached across party loyalties and persuaded those who might otherwise be repelled by Trump. During Biden’s presidency the long term trends of globalisation, industrial decline, export  of jobs and the faltering progress of generational living standard were joined by something much more immediate and recognisable, inflation. Inflation in the United States reached 9% in 2022, which was the highest rate of inflation that the US had experienced in over 40 years. A survey by The Associated Press found high prices were the number one concern for about half of all Trump voters. A study by Maziar Minovi, who heads the Eurasia Group, of elections over several decades found that whenever there's a sustained period of high inflation, voters are twice as likely to lose faith in the people running the government. This applies in most democracies,  when there is an inflationary shock across the world, the risk of the incumbents getting kicked out increases.[83] According to exit polls from CBS News, 75% of voters reported that inflation had caused moderate or severe hardship for them over the past year, with 45% saying they were worse off now than they were four years ago. During his campaign,  Trump vowed again and again to end inflation and strengthen the economy.[84]

For many Americans the simple  observation that inflation was lower during the Trump years meant  that “His track record proved to be, on balance, positive, and people look back now and think: ‘Oh, OK. Let’s try that again,’ said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former White House economic adviser, director of the Congressional Budget Office and now president of the conservative American Action Forum think tank.[85] This simple observation was a truth Kamala could not escape no matter how many economists pointed out that by almost every macroeconomic measure the economy had fared better under Biden than Trump. Research by Harvard University economist Stefanie Stantcheva shows that people blame inflation for making things more expensive, but they think that they personally deserve all the credit when they get new jobs or pay increases.[86] In other word inflation is seen as a unique kind of betrayal by the government and one that is prodded back into the forefront of people’s minds every time they visit an supermarket. This visceral reality also obscured regular analysis by economists who pointed out that many of Trump’s plans would likely add to inflation An immigration ban would push up labour costs, tariffs on imports would act as an additional tax on products on the stores and tax cuts would put more money in the economy the result would be higher inflation and higher interest rates. But that’s all in the future, here and now are the price of groceries.