Primaries and Caucuses

A primary is an election to choose a party’s candidate for an elective office. A caucus is a meeting for the selection of a party's candidate for an elective office. States that hold caucuses are usually geographically large but thinly populated, such as Iowa, North Dakota, and Nevada. In 2016, the Republicans held caucuses in 10 states and the Democrats held them in 14 states.

There are some similarities between candidates' selection in the US and in the UK. The Conservative Party has experimented with the use of primaries for selecting candidates in general elections but this has yet to achieve widespread use. The closest comparison that can be made therefore is the leadership elections for the major UK parties.  Closed primaries might be similar to UK party leadership elections in which only registered members can vote. This means that leaders in both countries have to ensure they have policies that appeal to the widest party to gain support for their election. However, they are different because open primaries can be contrasted with UK party leader elections as they allow far more than just party members to participate. 

 In a caucus, people participate in a meeting instead of going to a polling place. Generally, fewer individuals attend caucuses compared to primaries, and those who do tend to have stronger political beliefs. This often gives an advantage to more ideological candidates. In 2016, Bernie Sanders, a candidate from the liberal side of the Democratic Party, performed particularly well in caucus states. For instance, he secured 68% of the vote in Kansas and 82% in Alaska. Overall, Sanders averaged 66% in caucus votes, beating Hillary Clinton's 33%. Primaries serve two main purposes: they gauge the popularity of presidential candidates and select delegates for national party conventions. Because they follow state laws, there are many differences in how they operate.

 States choose when to hold their primaries or caucuses. National parties set the earliest and latest dates, typically from mid-January to early June, but each state picks its own day within that range. For instance, New Hampshire holds its primary early and on a unique day to gain more attention. In contrast, some states schedule their primaries on the same day as their neighbors to form regional primaries. The first Super Tuesday occurred in 1988 when several southern states aimed to boost their influence in choosing candidates.

An increasing number of states prefer to hold their primaries early in the election year, believing that earlier contests have greater sway over candidate choices. This trend, known as front-loading, has seen the number of states with primaries before the end of March rise from 11 in 1980 to 42 in 2008. These 42 states included the eight largest: California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. For example, California moved its primary from early June in 1980 to early February in 2008, while New York shifted from mid-April to early February. By February 5, 2008, over half of the delegates for the Democratic and Republican conventions had been chosen. However, both 2012 and 2016 showed a decrease in front loading, with both parties promoting a longer primary timeline. By the end of March 2016, 32 states had already voted, but New York, Pennsylvania, and California were still to hold their primaries.

Primaries can be categorized in several ways. One way is by distinguishing between closed and open primaries. In a closed primary, only registered party members can vote in their party's election. For example, only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary, and only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. In contrast, open primaries allow any registered voter to participate in either party's primary, even if they are registered as independents. This system permits cross-over voting, where voters can support a candidate from a different party. During the 2008 Democratic primaries, many independents and Republicans voted for Barack Obama in open primary states. In the 2012 Wisconsin Republican primary, 11% of the voters identified as Democrats. Mitt Romney won that primary overall, but Rick Santorum received more votes from Democrats. This raises questions about whether these Democrats preferred Santorum's views or were trying to influence the race. In 2016, the issue of cross-over voting was less prominent, as both parties faced tight races. Modified primaries allow registered independents to vote in either party's primary, while regular party members can vote only in their own.

Primaries can also be classified based on how delegates are awarded for national party conventions. In proportional primaries, candidates receive delegates based on the percentage of votes they receive. Most states set a minimum percentage of votes a candidate must achieve to earn delegates, often between 10% and 15%. Most Democratic and Republican primaries use this proportional system. However, some Republican primaries are winner-take-all contests, where the candidate with the most votes gets all the delegates from that state. For example, in the 2016 Arizona Republican primary, Donald Trump received all 58 delegates as a winner-take-all contest. In the New Hampshire primary, which was proportional, Trump earned only 11 delegates, while the remaining 12 were shared among four other candidates.

Primaries 2024

Initially, the most eventful race through the primaries was going to be conducted by the Republicans. With Biden as the incumbent President, it was expected that he would be the Democrat candidate. While incumbents seeking reelection can face opposition from within their party it is something the incumbent party seeks to avoid. There's a good reason; the last three presidents who faced serious internal opposition before the election went on to defeat

• Ford 1976

• Carter 1980

• Bush 1992

But four of the five presidents who faced no serious opposition went on to win. Since Biden faced no serious opposition the primary race was a foregone conclusion. (Mariane Williamson, Dean Philips, and Robert F Kennedy were briefly seen by the media as possible challengers)

Changes 2024

(Primaries and caucuses 2020)

The DNC (Democratic National Committee) made some significant changes

• Iowa no longer to hold the first caucus (this had not gone well in 2020)

• New Hampshire no longer to hold the first primary- instead, South Carolina would go first  South Carolina had supported Biden at a key moment in 2020 and was seen as demographically  more representative  of the nation than rural New Hampshire)

• New Hampshire, Nevada Georgia, and Michigan would be next

• Then no other states until March 

The Republican race looked least at the start to be more competitive with nine candidates.

However, the invisible primary remained a strong indicator 

Trump announced his candidacy first and very early-mid 2022 just after the mid-terms, where Trump-backed candidate had done badly. This encouraged early challengers to Trump including Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and wealth manager Vivek Ramaswamy. 

Trump did not take part in any Republican Party TV debates and often staged his own events to clash with them. This risked seeming cowardly and being the subject of attacks from all the other candidates, but such is Trump's grip on the Republican Party that most fo his rivals hesitated to criticize him which added to the sense that he had already won and they were really only attempting to secure places in this administration. Trump used his celebrity status as a TV personality and former president to dominate the race.

Why did the Republicans choose Trump again?

Trumpism has taken over the Republican party.  Two days after Super Tuesday Trump loyalists took control of the Republican National Committee. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican who has repeated Trump’s false claims of voter fraud, was elected as the party’s national chair. Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.  Chris LaCivita, became RNC chief of staff while remaining a Trump campaign adviser. 

 His MAGA supporters are very loyal. The MAGA Cult The Trump-supporting base now dominates the Republican party. Trump has focused on energizing his core supporters, instead of trying to attract new groups to the party. By doing this, he has increased the number of active supporters in elections and party activities, while also trying to weaken and discredit the opposing party. As a result, Trump has shaped his party into a powerful tool for his own goals and increasing his influence, raising concerns about the health of American democracy. For Trump loyalty is everything and his supporters attack Republicans who oppose Trump with extra vigor.  When Republican U.S. congressman Tom Rice voted to impeach Donald Trump for inciting the mob that stormed the U.S. Capitol in January 2021, it was the beginning of the end of his political career. Angry calls and emails – including three death threats – flooded the South Carolina Republican’s office. Trump backed Rice’s opponents in the party’s primary election and Rice was defeated. Since the start of 2022, Trump has used his Truth Social platform to attack fellow Republicans over 600 times. He has called out more than 100 party leaders, activists, and conservative media figures, according to a Reuters analysis of nearly 20,000 posts. One of his recent targets is Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, a crucial state that Trump lost narrowly in 2020. At a rally on August 3, Trump insulted Kemp, referring to him as “Little Brian” for not supporting attempts to overturn the last presidential election. Trump described this attack on Kemp as part of a larger effort to purify the party. “He's a bad guy. He's a disloyal guy,” Trump said about Kemp. Earlier that day on Truth Social, he mentioned, “We have to purge the Party of people that go against our Candidates and make it harder for a popular Republican President to beat the Radical Left.”

The anti-Trump Republicans who were brave enough to criticize Trump were divided and spent much of 2023-24 attacking each other. But even their criticism was mostly hesitant.   The most critical did the least well. The lesson was clear.

Why did the Democrats dump Biden?

Biden easily secured the Democrat nomination. Biden lost American Samoa to venture capitalist Jason Palmer, becoming the first incumbent president to lose a contest while appearing on the ballot since Jimmy Carter in 1980. However, he won every other contest by a large margin. However in 9 primaries the vote for 'uncommitted' or 'none of the above' was over 10%.  His 87% support was the lowest for an incumbent seeking reelection for 30 years.

 There was speculation in the first two years of his presidency that he might not seek a second term due to his age and low approval ratings. Former Democratic House representatives, including Carolyn Maloney, Joe Cunningham, and Tim Ryan, had publicly said Biden should not run. But Biden seems to have decided to run after the unexpectedly better mid-term elections.

The concerns that Biden was too old and too unpopular did not go away and after a disastrous debate performance, Biden reluctantly dropped out. Harris became the nominee following a virtual roll call with the support of approximately 98.9% of the delegates 

Polls consistently showed Biden trailing Trump and highlighted Biden's low popularity. After the debate only a strong and healthy performance could rescue Biden, instead, he caught COVID-19 and became confused and mistakenly referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” while speaking to reporters about Nato’s support for Ukraine. Leading Democrats began to withdraw their support.   

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