Case study The struggle over Brexit

Brexit Time line 

Who is Sovereign Parliament or people?

The battle for Brexit in Britain pitted Parliament against the government, but it also pitted Parliament against the people. In so doing it exposed the reality and problem of representative democracy, that Parliament is not the instrument of the British people it is there to do what it thinks is best for the British people whether they like it or not. The referendum  instructed Parliament to do something it was opposed to doing- hence a delay of over three years and two general elections. In a sense the British people had to vote twice for Brexit, once in the referendum and once in the election of 2019, when Boris Johnson succeeded in making it a Brexit election in a way which Theresa May had failed to do in 2017. The people have finally got there way and the assertion of popular sovereignty has once and for all established that in matters of constitutional significance it is the people and not Parliament who are sovereign. What exactly Brexit means and whether it will be what the coalition of divergent groups who unified around a desire for Brexit, will be pleased has yet to be seen. The final deal to establish a post Brexit relationship between the EU and the UK will be settled (or may be settled) by the end of 2020.

The Courts have been pulled into constitutional politics.

 The fight over the prorogation of Parliament  amplified the role of the courts in arbitrating on constitutional matters that had previously been left to politicians alone. The courts have not usually become involved in  the unwritten elements of the constitution in such a direct way. It may have strengthened calls for more of the British constitution, including the role of the queen and the prerogative powers of the PM, to be clarified or changed through legislation or a codified constitution.

The timeline story of Brexit

Impact of Brexit on Parliament

Parliament defeated May's deal on three occasions as well as delaying Johnson's request for an election. This was a level of Parliamentary Independence and assertiveness not seen since the days of John Major. Far from being a rubber stamp the Parliament began to resemble something like a US Congress however it was never able to take control of Brexit policy and although it blocked May's deal it never unified around a policy of its own. Parliament was against Brexit, against soft Brexit, against a no Brexit and against another referendum although groups within Parliament supported all of these alternatives. 

Has anything changed? After Johnson's victory in the 2019 election it might seem that the regular order has been restored since he has  80 seat majority, but it may also be that Parliament has set a precedent for future assertiveness - the revolt over Huawei and the appointed of Julian Lewis to the chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee against the government's wishes might be a sign of this continued assertiveness.

Impact seen in 2023

• The withdrawal created the ongoing Irish border dispute, with an effective customs border in the sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

• The British economy lost around 5.5% of GDP, over £120 billion, as a result of Brexit alone, current estimates suggest.

• The UK was short of 1.8 million jobs by 2023 due to consequences of Brexit, according to a Cambridge Econometrics report, commissioned by the Mayor of London.

• Gross value added of the manufacturing sector grew over the years but did not reach the promised increase of £45 billion.

• In fishing, the results were disappointing, as many in the industry felt betrayed by the Leave campaigners.

• No obvious greater control of UK borders Brexit drastically reduced the number of migrants arriving from the EU resulting in skills shortages and reduced productivity  (Immigration from non EU countries increased)

• By 2023, Brexit cost the average British household £850 per year, according to the National Institute for Social and Economic Research.