• June 2019 Possible Democratic candidates to face Trump

There were Republican primaries and caucuses held in the first half of 2020,but  President Trump faced only token opposition. Trump’s only near serious contender, Bill Weld the former governor of Massachusetts, had his best result in Maryland (June 2) with 12 % but in only one other state – Vermont – did he win over 10 % of the vote. He suspended his campaign in mid-March. Trump, therefore, avoided any possibility of a serious primary challenge. All modern-day incumbent presidents who have enjoyed an uncontested reselection have gone on to win the election. – Nixon (1972), Reagan (1984), Clinton (1996), Bush (2004) and Obama (2012). 

The caucuses started in multiple local meetings on Monday 3 February and results – sent from each caucus to the Democratic Party state headquarters in Des Moines – were expected early the following day. But by 4 p. m. on Tuesday, no results had been announced. This was said to be because of ‘quality checks’ being made to the results. It was soon reported in the press that the new software had suffered a technical failure with only around one in-five of the caucus locations able to access the App to report their results. Results were then announced over the next 2 days, but they were incomplete and apparently inaccurate. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) was so alarmed at this shambles that the DNC chair Tom Perez ordered a complete recount. After that had taken place – and following protests from the camps of both Sanders and Buttigieg – the final result was not confirmed until 27 February – over 3 weeks after the caucuses had been held. 

The result was unclear and confusing. Bernie Sanders won the first preference vote count taking 24.7 % to Pete Buttigieg’s 21.3 %. But in the result that counts – what is called the State Delegate Equivalents – Buttigieg beat Sanders by 0.04 %, taking 14 delegates to 12 for Sanders. But the whole process had taken so long that by the time Buttigieg was officially declared the winner, he was just 48 hours from ending his presidential campaign. This lead to more calls for the end to the use of caucuses in Iowa.

However the big headline was Joe Biden’s fourth-place finish, behind Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren. No one had ever finished fourth in Iowa and gone on to win the party’s nomination. As soon as this fact was known – even in the incomplete results – Biden’ s poll rating nationally fell sharply and Sanders’ rose. Hwever the press also noted that in 2016  Sanders’ support had boomed in caucuses and tended to struggle in primaries which is more evidence that this comes down to the representativeness of those who participate. Caucuses do attract committed voters and those with an interest in the issues and that was a good description of Sanders’ supporters. 

The New Hampshire Primary 

In 2016  against Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders won the  New Hampshire primary with 60 % of the vote. He had the advantage being the Senator from the neighbouring state of Vermont. So it was presumed that Sanders would win. Sanders did win New Hampshire again in 2020 but with only 25 % of the vote and by only 1 percentage point over Pete Buttigieg in second place. So the headline and momentum went to Buttigieg for getting top-two finishing places in both the first two contests. The other big ‘winner’ in New Hampshire was the senator from Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar, who finished a strong third with just under 20 % of the vote. The big loser of the night was Joe Biden – finishing fifth with just 8 % of the vote.

 The South Carolina Comeback. 

 With Sanders winning, as expected, in the Nevada caucuses 11 days later, all eyes switched to South Carolina’s primary on 29 February. Biden seemed to be in real trouble, however, 3 days before South Carolina Democrats voted. Jim Clyburn, a House member from the state for nearly three decades and the Majority Whip in the House – the third highest-ranking House Democrat – and the senior black American in the House, endorsed Joe Biden. 'That’s a win for old-school politics. But because old-school politics seems to be on the way out, it’s also a considerable personal win for Clyburn, who has proven himself to be the rare modern-day elected official who voters care about. The mere fact that people say Clyburn swung their vote doesn’t necessarily mean it’s true, of course, but the fact that they want to say it is a sign of the esteem for him locally.' 

“Americans know Joe Biden, and a lot of them are coming home,” said Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who was at the airport in Dallas on Saturday night after campaigning for Biden in that Super Tuesday state. 

In a sign of Biden’s sudden momentum, Terry McAuliffe, the former Virginia governor and former Democratic National Committee chair, and Virginia Rep. Bobby Scott, both endorsed Biden ahead of the Super Tuesday contest in that state. And Sen. Tim Kaine, another recent addition to the Biden camp,  started to campaign with Biden in Norfolk .

Biden won with a 28-point win over Sanders with Biden on 48 % and Sanders on 20 %. It was an unexpected comeback and reversed Biden's decline instead of making him the clear front-runner. Black American voters made up 56 % of the electorate and 61 % of them voted for Biden with only 17 % voting for Sanders. Whether it was the endorsement of Clyburn or Biden's association with Obama he had the same overwhelming support of the black American community that both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had enjoyed and had been so important in the four elections that they won between them. Almost half of the voters in the primary told exit pollsters that Clyburn’s endorsement of Biden played an important role in deciding how they would vote. In the 10 days following Biden’s overwhelming win in South Carolina, he went from 19 % to over 53 % in the national polls and four of his five main rivals – Buttigieg (1 March), Klobuchar (2 March), Bloomberg (4 March) and Warren (5 March) – all withdrew from the race.