How important is the pick for Vice President
20240725_me_vice_presidential_picks_how_much_do_they_matter.mp3Vice presidential picks: How much do they matter?
2024 Donald Trump picked Ohio Senator JD Vance as his Republican running mate in the United States presidential election was seen as a sign of Trump's confidence since Vance does little to broaden his appeal.
On the opposing ticket, meanwhile, is Kamala Harris', choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz added mid-western appeal.
The American vice presidency, as the saying goes, “is not worth a bucket of warm spit.” Yet vice presidential candidates, many people believe, can make all the difference in winning—or losing—a presidential election. Is that true, though? Did Sarah Palin, for example, sink John McCain’s campaign in 2008? Did Joe Biden help Barack Obama win? Do running mates actually matter?
The choice of a running mate reflects on presidential candidates. For Democrats, this decision can indicate whether they lean more liberal or more centrist, depending on the running mate's history.
Is it essential for a vice presidential pick to show the potential to step into the presidency? Chris Devine who co-authored the book "Do Running Mates Matter?: The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections." strongly believes it is important.
He stated that voters need assurance that the vice president is qualified to take over the presidency if needed.
Chris, a voter in downtown Minneapolis, emphasized that the vice president should be capable of performing all presidential duties and more, as this role also involves holding the president accountable. He pointed out that being the second in command often requires significant behind-the-scenes work without the recognition that comes with being the top candidate.
What traits in a vice presidential pick influence voters? Devine believes qualifications are paramount. A credible running mate who understands foreign policy and has experience in the federal government resonates well with voters.
Although Sen. Vance has potential, Devine mentioned that he lacks sufficient political experience, having been in office for under two years.
He advised that making a cautious, reliable choice is generally more effective than opting for a bold but risky one.
Devine explained that voters can see through political maneuvering; they recognize when a candidate is selected for strategic reasons.
His research debunks two common misconceptions about vice presidential selections: the belief that a pick will secure their home state and that they will attract a specific voting demographic.
According to Devine, their findings indicate that voting patterns usually remain unchanged.
Choosing a woman to attract female voters or an evangelical to appeal to a religious group rarely yields the desired results.
Consequently, the vice presidential pick is only one of many elements that sway voters, who primarily concentrate on the presidential candidates and their policies.
In 1960, John F. Kennedy remarked that he could not recall a single instance where a vice-presidential candidate had influenced an electoral vote. Nevertheless, he chose Lyndon Johnson as his running mate, believing the Texas senator would help him secure votes in the southern states. Johnson campaigned vigorously across the South on a train known as the LBJ Express, arriving at events in a ten-gallon hat while the song “The Yellow Rose of Texas” played. After their victory, Kennedy acknowledged that they could not have won the South without Johnson's support. It is widely accepted that Johnson was crucial for their success in the South. However, how significant are vice-presidential selections in elections?
A well-regarded vice-presidential candidate can enhance a campaign, but their impact is relatively minor compared to that of the presidential candidate. Research shows that this effect diminishes over time as voters start to view the vice-presidential pick simply as an extension of the main candidate. Voters often consider the choice of running mate to be less significant when deciding whom to support, with fewer than ten percent admitting they have changed their votes in response to a candidate’s selection for vice president over their lifetime.
Many believe that vice-presidents can connect with groups that presidents may overlook. This idea, rooted in geographical choice, influenced Kennedy's decision to select Johnson and has led to speculation that Kamala Harris might choose Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, to secure that crucial battleground state. Her choice of Tim Walz a, former schoolteacher, and a retired U.S. Army non-commissioned officer. He has served since 2019 as the 41st governor of Minnesota may have aimed to broaden Harrises mid west appeal. Researchers Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko have examined the impact of home-state advantage by analyzing data dating back to 1884, utilizing various statistical methods.
Their research indicates that this advantage might be overstated. They question whether it truly exists at all; if it does, it may only apply to vice-presidential candidates from smaller states with extensive records. Typically, smaller states do not significantly affect election outcomes, so any advantage would likely be minimal. However, they acknowledge a noteworthy case: Al Gore may have succeeded in New Hampshire in 2000, and potentially won the election, if he had chosen Jeanne Shaheen, the state's governor, as his running mate. Conversely, not everyone agrees that only candidates from small states can bring in additional votes. Nate Silver, a statistician and election analyst, argues that his model predicts a vice-presidential candidate from Pennsylvania could enhance Ms. Harris's chances of winning by as much as 4%.
Evidence indicates that choosing a vice president to attract specific voter demographics—such as a woman for female voters or a Catholic for fellow believers—does not yield significant benefits. For instance, neither Geraldine Ferraro, who ran with Walter Mondale in 1984, nor Sarah Palin, who was John McCain's running mate in 2008, helped their parties gain more female votes compared to previous elections. Research by Devine and Kopko shows that Tim Kaine did not enhance Hillary Clinton's appeal to Catholic voters, and Evangelicals didn't show an increased tendency to vote for Donald Trump after he selected Mike Pence in 2016. The data is somewhat unclear because there have been relatively few vice-presidential candidates who are women or from religious or ethnic minorities. There is some evidence that a vice-presidential choice might attract voters with similar beliefs, as seen when Paul Ryan increased conservative support for Mitt Romney in 2012, although it wasn't sufficient for victory. The choice of a running mate often reflects a candidate's judgment, influencing voter perception. The McCain-Palin ticket is an example of how a poor choice can lead to lost votes, as picking the controversial Alaska governor was a risky decision that did not benefit Mr. McCain.
Running mates are often perceived as valuable allies who can express views their candidate cannot. However, political scientists have found that any electoral advantage gained from relying on a running mate in this manner tends to be fleeting.
While vice-presidential selections can influence outcomes, their effect is often overestimated. A poor choice can hurt the ticket, but a good selection has rarely led to electoral victory. Further examination of the data reveals that even the notion that Johnson won the South is a misconception. Perhaps Kennedy was correct from the start.
Past comments from Ohio senator J D Vance about “childless cat ladies” and parents having more voting power in elections led to criticism from Democrats and the belief that the choice of Vance was a mistake. Vance’s comments also fueled a new line of attack from opponents who are deriding him as “weird.”
At 60, Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’s running mate, is not old for an American politician but he manages to both look in good health while also seeming reassuringly venerable. If you put out a casting note asking for a dad from middle America, Walz is who would show up. He provides the same reassurance to Harris that Biden did to Obama.