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The Politics Shed- A Free Text Book for all students of Politics.
On Monday, 14 October, Beijing conducted military exercises with 34 ships and 125 aircraft around Taiwan. This was a test of an “integrated joint operation,” showcasing a plan for a potential invasion of Taiwan using land, sea, and air forces together. The Chinese military left quickly after surrounding the island, and state media in China called the operation a success.
The military actions were prompted by a speech from William Lai, the new President of Taiwan, who stated that Taiwan would resist being taken over or having its independence violated. To Beijing, this statement is unacceptable since they view Taiwan as a part of China that needs to be unified, whether through diplomacy or force. They do not see Taiwan as an independent state. Opinions among Taiwanese people vary; some want to maintain the current state where they do not declare independence, while others support formal independence or unification with China. Beijing considered Lai’s speech a troubling move towards supporting independence.
In the 21st century, Taiwan has followed an unofficial ‘Silicon Shield’ strategy, hoping that its economic ties with China and the importance of its advanced semiconductor manufacturing would prevent war. The thinking is that a long military invasion would damage Taiwan’s manufacturing capabilities and make it economically unviable, and its vital role in the global economy might encourage American intervention to defend it. So far, this assumption has held true. However, the increasing tensions today challenge the belief that economic ties will automatically reduce conflict.
After a short period as a Dutch colony, Taiwan came under the control of China's Qing dynasty. It was later ceded to Japan after Japan's victory in the First Sino-Japanese War. After World War Two, Japan surrendered and gave up the territories it had taken from China. Taiwan then came under the administration of the Republic of China (ROC), which ruled with support from the United States and the United Kingdom.
In the following years, a civil war broke out in China, and Chiang Kai-shek's forces were defeated by Mao Zedong's Communist army. In 1949, Chiang and around 1.5 million supporters from his Kuomintang (KMT) government fled to Taiwan. He set up a dictatorship that remained in power until the 1980s. After his death, Taiwan began moving towards democracy, holding its first elections in 1996.
By the 1970s, some countries felt that the Taipei government no longer truly represented the people of mainland China. In 1971, the United Nations shifted its diplomatic recognition to Beijing. As China opened up its economy in 1978, the US saw new opportunities for trade and established formal diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979. Since then, the number of countries recognising the ROC has drastically declined, with only 12 nations acknowledging the island today, as China applies significant diplomatic pressure on others not to recognise Taiwan.
In the 1980s, Taiwan eased restrictions on visits to China and investment there, which improved relations. In 1991, the ROC announced that the war with the People's Republic of China was over. China suggested a "one country, two systems" model, offering Taiwan considerable autonomy in exchange for accepting Beijing's control. This model was used during Hong Kong's return to China in 1997 but has since been challenged by increased Chinese influence.
Taiwan rejected China's proposal, leading Beijing to claim that the ROC government was illegitimate, although representatives from both sides still held limited discussions. In 2000, Taiwan elected Chen Shui-bian as president, which alarmed Beijing. Chen and his party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), openly supported Taiwan's independence.
After Chen was re-elected in 2004, China passed an anti-secession law, stating its right to use force against Taiwan if it attempted to break away. Chen was later succeeded by the KMT, who preferred closer ties with the PRC. In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen from the DPP became president. Under her leadership, relations across the strait worsened, and China ceased official communications with Taiwan, citing her refusal to endorse the idea of a single Chinese nation. Tsai has never declared Taiwan's independence, asserting instead that it is already independent.In January 2024, Taiwan elected Tsai's vice-president, William Lai, as president - a man China has branded a "separatist".
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