4.6  Evaluating Public  Opinion Data

Public opinion is measured through scientific polling, and the results of public opinion polls influence public policies and institutions.

Explain the quality and credibility of claims based on public opinion data.

The relationship between scientific polling and elections and policy debates is affected by the: 

•  Importance of public opinion as a source of political influence in a given election or policy debate 

• Reliability and veracity of public opinion data 

Opinion polls are a survey of public opinion from a particular sample group, and as such can be useful in informing politicians about the views of specific groups of people. However, their main use is prior to elections, where politicians use polls as a tool to inform their campaigns and to craft messaging. As such, they are not independent of the political process. Rather, they could also influence voters’ behaviour by affecting expectation about the outcomes of the election. 

Polls assist political candidates in understanding public opinions. Advocates of polling argue that it serves as a democratic tool, allowing policymakers to stay informed about the evolving views on various issues. Politicians no longer have to wait until the next election to gauge public approval or disapproval of governmental actions. If poll results change, officials can adjust their strategies accordingly. George Gallup believed that polling could enhance democracy by making public opinions accessible beyond election periods. His son, George Gallup, Jr., contended that this vision had been achieved, stating that polling has diminished the influence of special interest groups and amplified the voices of those typically unheard. Conversely, critics claim that polling may lead politicians to prioritize following public opinion over providing leadership. For instance, polls might have indicated to the Constitutional Convention delegates that the Constitution was not favored, or to President Thomas Jefferson that the public opposed the Louisiana Purchase. Similarly, polls would likely have dissuaded William Seward from acquiring Alaska, a deal often referred to as “Seward’s Folly.”

Jacobs and Shapiro suggest that the popular belief that politicians simply cater to public opinion polls might be incorrect. Their analysis of key policy discussions from the 1990s shows that political leaders track public opinion not to shape policy but to learn how to present their ideas to gain public favor for the policies they and their supporters advocate. Staff in both the White House and Congress often indicated that their polling efforts aimed at identifying effective phrases to promote existing policies, rather than shaping new ones. Instead of seeking middle-ground solutions that appeal broadly, Jacobs and Shapiro contend that political elites use polls to devise strategies that help them stick to their original plans. For instance, Joel Benenson, President Obama’s chief pollster, noted in 2009 that their role was not to dictate actions but to assist in refining messages that could persuade more people to support the President’s agenda.

However, polls can undermine democracy in another way by influencing the election process through what is known as the bandwagon effect. This term, stemming from 19th-century political parades, describes voters who back a candidate simply because they see others doing so. While only 2 percent of respondents in a recent CBS/New York Times poll reported being swayed by poll results, 26 percent felt that others were influenced, highlighting a perception that “it’s not me, but others who are easily swayed.” Additionally, polls often cater to the media's interest in identifying frontrunners, which can overshadow important campaign issues.

Election Day exit polls face significant criticism as well. These polls involve randomly selected voting locations where pollsters ask every tenth voter how they cast their ballot. The results accumulate by day’s end, allowing networks to predict election outcomes before all votes are tallied. In some presidential elections, such as in 1984 and 1996, networks proclaimed a national winner even while millions of voters on the West Coast still had hours left to vote, leading critics to argue that this practice may deter voter turnout and influence state and local race outcomes.

A prevalent concern with polling is the potential for results to be manipulated through subtle changes in question wording. Small adjustments can lead to notably different outcomes. For instance, a February 2010 New York Times/CBS News poll found that while 70 percent supported allowing “gay men and lesbians” to serve in the military, only 44 percent approved of military service by “homosexuals” who “openly announce their sexual orientation.” This discrepancy allows advocates for LGBTQ military service to claim majority support while opponents could argue that only a minority endorse lifting the ban on openly serving homosexuals. This case emphasizes the importance of scrutinizing how questions are framed when assessing public opinion data. Thankfully, most leading polling organizations now make their questionnaires available online, facilitating greater transparency and scrutiny of their methodologies.